Australian Crop Update – Week 33, 2024

Negative global influences pressured the Australian cash markets last week. Rains across Queensland (QLD) and most of New South Wales (NSW) have all but locked in bumper yields for the north and as a consequence, old crop markets are giving up the inverse and the two cash markets are starting to trade on a par in the east. 
 
Australian domestic consumers have become increasingly comfortable with old crop supplies and the prospects for a large new crop and are buying hand to mouth. Last Friday, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia increased their Western Australia (WA) grain forecast to 17.4 million metric tonne (MMT) from 16.3MMT in July after improved rainfall. Wheat was slightly increased to 10MMT, with barley increasing to 4.27MMT. We will look to update the balance sheets later this week
 
Due to dry weather, The South Australian (SA) Faba Beans market is firm; they need more rain to get growers to sell. 

Soil moisture levels were close to or above the median in all states except Victoria (VIC). The first week of August showed a reduction in soil moisture in SA and VIC.

The market is still struggling to find its direction, not helped by another week scattered with holidays in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Panamaxes are facing soft sentiment which is gently eroding rates across the board as owners struggle to find a positive note to halt the decline. In the Atlantic, a lack of fresh demand has caused the market to be nervous about the near-term future. However, it should be noted that grain round voyages are still trading at a slight premium to other rounds. So if we do see demand pick up in the traditional grain loading areas, there should be a steady floor for rates to push again. The Pacific will be looking (rather hoping...) to find something similar this week. The Supra/Ultra market was largely uneventful throughout the week with rates generally trending sideways. The Handy market was quiet but steady.
 
There was 216 thousand metric tonne (KMT) of wheat and 81KMT of canola added to the stem in the past week
 
Australia exported 725,085 metric tonnes (MT) of barley and 249,071MT of sorghum in June, according to the latest export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The feed barley component at 485,276MT was more than double the 216,118MT shipped in May, with shipments to China accounting for 79 percent of the total.